US presidential elections

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US presidential elections

Post by Dirk @ Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:23 am

Since pretty much all we hear about is Trump, here is PJ O'Rourke's take on it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35521558

e.g

Most of Bernie's {Sanders} support comes from people who weren't born when his ideas were in vogue. They're too young to know that what Bernie says may sound like it makes sense during the dorm room bull session, but sooner or later you have to put the bong down and exhale.
#


{Cruz is} up on the front line bravely firing away without noticing that the other side has gone home to celebrate victory with legalised marijuana at same-sex wedding receptions.


Quite scary when the best hope for beating the loony candidates is Hilary Clinton

I disagree with PJ when he says
Jeb Bush is the "Great American Failure Story". Here's Jeb with all the Bush influence, all the Bush political connections, all the Bush campaign funding, and he can't get out of single-digit polling numbers. This would be almost impossible for the son of an oligarchic family anywhere else in the world. Isn't America a wonderful country?

Apart form the fact that that Clinton is turning into another oligarchic family, I just don't see anything like the same concept of political families in UK, Germany, Netherlands or most of Europe -though there are some elements of it in France and possibly Italy but still not as much as US. Maybe the US still hankers after a royal family
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by S1K @ Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:45 am

I read that this morning too. P.J. O'Rourke is a good writer but he can tend to the self-indulgent in allowing himself to go for a funny line in place of a strictly accurate one.

I'm with you on the dynastic point. What are the Kennedys if not an American oligarchy?
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by tanglerat @ Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:01 am

spast1kunt wrote:I read that this morning too. P.J. O'Rourke is a good writer but he can tend to the self-indulgent in allowing himself to go for a funny line in place of a strictly accurate one.

I'm with you on the dynastic point. What are the Kennedys if not an American oligarchy?


They're has-been dead ends. The Bushes are the new Kennedy's.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by tanglerat @ Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:34 am

Dirk wrote:Apart form the fact that that Clinton is turning into another oligarchic family, I just don't see anything like the same concept of political families in UK, Germany, Netherlands or most of Europe -though there are some elements of it in France and possibly Italy but still not as much as US. Maybe the US still hankers after a royal family


Ireland is rife and riddled with it. Practically every constituency has it, where seats are handed down from father to son/daughter. "Name Recognition" the Party Handlers call it, and by fcuk is it highly prized.

Explains a lot about the state of politics and the state of the country I suppose.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by minimoog @ Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:52 am

Dirk wrote:Since pretty much all we hear about is Trump, here is PJ O'Rourke's take on it

e.g

Most of Bernie's {Sanders} support comes from people who weren't born when his ideas were in vogue. They're too young to know that what Bernie says may sound like it makes sense during the dorm room bull session, but sooner or later you have to put the bong down and exhale.
#


Pretty much what you'd expect from the Republican Party Reptile.

Sanders' support seems built on the premise that he's Not A Cnut. I can see how that's appealing.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Strawman @ Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:11 am

minimoog wrote:Pretty much what you'd expect from the Republican Party Reptile.


He's coruscating of the Republican candidates as well though

Trump is a prank the American electorate is pulling on the American political establishment.


Ted Cruz wants a 10% flat-rate income tax. The US gross domestic product is $18tn. The US federal budget is $3.8tn. Suppose Cruz somehow lops $1tn off the budget. Suppose the 10% tax is somehow applied to the entire GDP. That still leaves a $1tn-plus hole in the national pants pocket. In American politics, you mustn't say that hardline conservatives don't count. But you may say that they can't count.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Pigeon @ Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:25 am

Dirk wrote:Apart form the fact that that Clinton is turning into another oligarchic family, I just don't see anything like the same concept of political families in UK, Germany, Netherlands or most of Europe -though there are some elements of it in France and possibly Italy but still not as much as US. Maybe the US still hankers after a royal family


I think they really don't get that "royal family" and "people running the country" are non-intersecting sets these days. I keep seeing comments posted by Americans on the lines of "how can you guys stand to put up with an unelected president" and completely failing to understand that they're not a president and apart from the occasional bit of shit to watch on telly it makes fcuk all practical difference to 99% of people.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Strawman @ Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:43 pm

Last edited by Strawman on Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by tanglerat @ Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:58 pm

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Re: US presidential elections

Post by minimoog @ Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:40 pm

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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Strawman @ Mon Feb 15, 2016 7:50 pm

James Adomian wrote:Went to a Trump rally in New Hampshire this week. Hard to describe the vibe, but "what if the Nazis didn't care about fitness?" comes close.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Mon Feb 15, 2016 11:35 pm

All I have time to do is post this and hope you haven't all seen it:

http://trumpdonald.org/
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by span @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:02 pm

Can someone explain in simple terms without blathering on, what primaries and caucasses and things are? If Trump keeps winning these things, will he become the Republican nominee, or might he still not?

And do Clinton and Sanders have to do the same?
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Strawman @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:14 pm

span wrote: If Trump keeps winning these things, will he become the Republican nominee, or might he still not?

Yes, he needs a certain number of delegate votes and each state adds a few to the total (depends on population size and stuff), he needs just over 1,200
He currently has over 100.
span wrote:And do Clinton and Sanders have to do the same?

Yes but for the democratic party.

There are also independents, not sure how they get whittled down, but some end up in the final election ballot.
Last edited by Strawman on Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by S1K @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:26 pm

span wrote:Can someone explain in simple terms without blathering on, what primaries and caucasses and things are? If Trump keeps winning these things, will he become the Republican nominee, or might he still not?

And do Clinton and Sanders have to do the same?

The state caucuses elect delegates who attend the Republican National Convention.

The delegates at the convention then elect the presidential candidate. While some states rules bind the delegate to vote for the candidate who came first in their state's caucus others do not so if they want the delegate can vote for another candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republica ... d_schedule

The process for the Democrats is similar but they also have what are called Superdelegates who are elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee who are not bound by caucus votes and who comprise about a sixth of the convention votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrati ... 16#Process
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by span @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:44 pm

thanks, both! I do feel a bit more knowledgeable now. Confusing, innit?

So it's early days but Trump's definitely winning the most delegates by miles, isn't he? This is ridiculous, do people think he's actually likely to be the Republican nominee?? Scary.

I was thinking Sanders was neck-and-neck with Clinton but it turns out she's got 505 to his 71 so I'll relax. If it's Clinton v Trump, SURELY she's a shoo-in? Surely??
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Dirk @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:46 pm

I think trump is surefire win for the republican nomination, but I just don't see him getting to president. He will turn off more neutrals and moderate republicans than Hilary will do from the other side.

Just scary that I am hoping that Hilary wins
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by S1K @ Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:50 pm

Trump isn't necessarily a shoo-in. If all the other candidates dropped out then I think Rubio could beat Trump. I doubt Cruz will drop out though. The grown-ups in the Republican Party must be tearing their hair out at the shitshow their party has become.

Hillary has to ask herself whether she could really choose Bernie Sanders as a Vice-Presidential running mate. Would he be an asset in shoring up her vote among younger more idealistic voters or would his status as a self declared Democratic Socialist be enough to frighten the horses?

I still think that it's odds-on that Hillary wins the White House but it'll be interesting to watch.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Dirk @ Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:38 pm

From the FT. I love the last paragraph

"My wife and I are affluent Americans with postgraduate degrees. We are socially liberal and fiscally mildly conservative. We are not the sans-culottes you see as the prototypical Trump voter. We are well aware of his vulgarity and nous deficiency yet we contemplate voting for him. Why?"

"The Republican tribunes, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, are backward, foolish and inexperienced. John Kasich, a moderate with extensive governmental experience and a willingness to compromise, is an also-ran. That leaves The Donald, really a moderate in wolf’s garb, who would owe nothing to either party and might strike deals, for instance on tax reform.

"Yes, we could be like the good citizens who voted for a “tameable” Hitler in 1933 to get things back on track. But the alternatives look worse."
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Strawman @ Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:59 pm

That last sentence is insane

I quite like this

Original video page: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0tE6T-ecmg
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Turntable @ Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:04 pm

Dirk wrote:. I love the last paragraph

.

"Yes, we could be like the good citizens who voted for a “tameable” Hitler in 1933 to get things back on track. But the alternatives look worse."


:biglaugh:
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Dirk @ Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:49 pm

Original video page: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSXp37aJJ1w


You wouldn't see anything like that on UK TV. Imagine the howls of protest from the Kippers
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Dirk @ Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:39 am

So with the Republican Party now funding anti-Trump advertising, the "establishment" of comics and media lampooning him, and a few slips on his part, there is some evidence that Trump's support is slipping:

Trump won 62% of the delegates prior to Super Tuesday, 43% on Super Tuesday but only 30% thereafter

Which leads to 2 possibilities:
His main rival Ted Cruz could get it. He is also hated by the Republican establishment. Senator Lindsay Graham, who himself ran for the Republican nomination, has compared the choice to "being shot or poisoned".

Or no one person could get the nomination on the first ballot. In which case it goes to a brokered deal. In which case anything could happen
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by thekungfury @ Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:20 pm

Lots of parallels with Farage. A u-turning anti-establishment punchable smug tw@t with knee-jerk populist statements but very few policies beyond OMG foreigns! Old, thick, poor and easily led supporters. Whines that the mainstream media is against them whilst enjoying free publicity that others would give their right arm for.
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Re: US presidential elections

Post by Käsemeister @ Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:35 pm

thekungfury wrote:Lots of parallels with Farage. A u-turning anti-establishment punchable smug tw@t with knee-jerk populist statements but very few policies beyond OMG foreigns! Old, thick, poor and easily led supporters. Whines that the mainstream media is against them whilst enjoying free publicity that others would give their right arm for.


Arguably more parallels with Corbyn - grassroots support but little in the chambers themselves.
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