General ELection 2017

Do you have difficulty sustaining your election?

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by ttwiggy @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:38 am

Greg66 wrote:
Dirk wrote:I don't believe the polls can be that wrong.


<Raises eyebrows>

But probs a CTF bubble. What with us lot being so caring and inclusive.


I used to think NP&E on PH was a bubble.But then Brexit and Trump.
ttwiggy
 
Posts: 1141
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:54 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Deuteronomy @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:46 am

Dirk wrote:Interesting if surprising poll

Image

EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/


That graph is a mess!
User avatar
Deuteronomy
 
Posts: 15115
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2008 4:57 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:47 am

I'm torn between Lab or LD. I've never voted Con and I never will. Which is a bugger because I live in a safe Con-stituency. As in most places the LDs were wiped out round here in the last election, down 23%. In 2010 they were runners-up, but still 10 points adrift of Con. So could they regain that 23% and add another 10+%? Of course not. Then again Lab winning a big rural seat is equally fantastical.

I guess all that means it doesn't really matter, in my case.
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:53 am

Dirk wrote:Interesting if surprising poll

Image

EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

Whoever thought that way of depicting it made sense needs beating.

I too am considering a LD vote.
User avatar
Tokyo Sexwale
 
Posts: 48178
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:14 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by spast1kunt @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:58 am

Given that I'm a remoaner and that Labour have been doing their absolute best to make themselves completely unelectable over the past couple of years I can't see who I can vote for other than the Lib Dems.
User avatar
spast1kunt
 
Posts: 4113
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:10 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Greg66 @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:08 am

Despite considering a LD vote, I have a feeling that come the day the prospect of giving an inch to a party - or collection of parties - who would happily reinstate the 50p top tax rate (if not more) and impose the "mansion" tax will be enough to dissuade me from voting LD.

Not sure who I will vote for in those circs.
User avatar
Greg66
 
Posts: 2185
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:03 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:36 am

Tokyo Sexwale wrote:
Whoever thought that way of depicting it made sense needs beating.

Would you prefer this?

Image

First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:42 am

Dirk wrote:First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out


I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Strawman @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:46 am

Also talking about a 2020 election so irrelevant now May has gone early for re-election.
User avatar
Strawman
 
Posts: 37251
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:50 pm
Location: insignificant next to the power of the force

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Rod Rammage @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:46 am

Ridiculous chart. If I could be arsed looking at it for 5 mins I might figure it out, but I simply cannot. Be arsed!
User avatar
Rod Rammage
 
Posts: 25461
Joined: Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:05 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:54 am

Rod Rammage wrote:Ridiculous chart. If I could be arsed looking at it for 5 mins I might figure it out, but I simply cannot. Be arsed!


So the circles represents how people voted in 2015 by part and Leave/Remain, and shows how many would vote for each party in 2020.

So the first solid red blob on the top line shows that 13.0 somethings* of 2015 Labour Remain voters would now** vote Conservative. As would 23 something of LD Remain voters, etc.


*can't be %, as the total in each category is >100
**not now, in 2020
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:54 am

y
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:56 am

minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out


I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?

A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:57 am

Strawman wrote:Also talking about a 2020 election so irrelevant now May has gone early for re-election.


I'd say that make it more relevant. In as much as any poll is...

Dirk wrote:A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.


:confused:
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by span @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:58 am

I'm going LD too.

That area's got a conservative MP now but LDs have previously done well there. The constituency voted leave but not by a ridiculous margin ALTHOUGH if you add on the 12% of ukippers from the last GE onto the cons, LD would have no chance.

So, shrug, fingers crossed I suppose.
User avatar
span
 
Posts: 6018
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:14 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:58 am

Dirk wrote:
minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out


I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?

A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.

A graph should explain something visually, like your second one - makes perfect sense. If you have to keep referring to keys you may as well just look at a table of data IMO.
User avatar
Tokyo Sexwale
 
Posts: 48178
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:14 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by DI Burnside @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:00 pm

Historically I've been a Tory voter, but have in the past voted Labour and Lib Dem (once each) because their policies at the time were most aligned to me. To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.

I'm leaning towards LD this time, but may end up Tory depending in what happens in the coming weeks.
User avatar
DI Burnside
 
Posts: 16409
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:44 pm
Location: Beds
Highscores: 7

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by minimoog @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:09 pm

DI Burnside wrote:To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.


Your face is a bit stupid.
User avatar
minimoog
 
Posts: 8750
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2008 10:03 am

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by DI Burnside @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:15 pm

minimoog wrote:
DI Burnside wrote:To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.


Your face is a bit stupid.


Well yes, but not as stupid as you.
User avatar
DI Burnside
 
Posts: 16409
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:44 pm
Location: Beds
Highscores: 7

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Pigeon @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:40 pm

minimoog wrote:I'm torn between Lab or LD. I've never voted Con and I never will. Which is a bugger because I live in a safe Con-stituency. As in most places the LDs were wiped out round here in the last election, down 23%. In 2010 they were runners-up, but still 10 points adrift of Con. So could they regain that 23% and add another 10+%? Of course not. Then again Lab winning a big rural seat is equally fantastical.

I guess all that means it doesn't really matter, in my case.


I've got just the same problem. Natural inclination to vote Labour because Corbyn is already diminished by disappointment that he's totally failed to get them to actually BE an Opposition and they're still just as useless as they were without him, and the suicidal tendencies displayed in that Hansard pretty well put the seal on it. On the other hand the Lib Dems disappointed the fcuk out of me by getting into bed with the Tories last time round, but in that Hansard it's pretty well only the Lib Dem chap who's talking any kind of sense. But on the third hand his name does not appear in the list of the 13 (Fcuksake, how few?) MPs who voted against the early election, and most of them are Labour:

Ronnie Campbell (Labour - Blyth Valley)
Ann Clwyd (Labour - Cynon Valley)
Paul Farrelly (Labour - Newcastle-under-Lyme)
Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour - Poplar and Limehouse)
Clive Lewis (Labour - Norwich South)
Fiona Mactaggart (Labour - Slough)
Liz McInnes (Labour - Heywood and Middleton)
Dennis Skinner (Labour - Bolsover)
Graham Stringer (Labour - Blackley and Broughton)
Lady Hermon (Independent - North Down)
Natalie McGarry (Independent - Glasgow East)
Michelle Thomson (Independent - Edinburgh West)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP - Belfast South)

And on the fourth hand in a safe Tory seat it probably doesn't make a blind bugger of difference anyway.
User avatar
Pigeon
CTF Technical Expert
CTF Technical Expert
 
Posts: 23424
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:50 pm
Location: All alone in the crazy city

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:52 pm

Dirk wrote:Interesting if surprising poll
...
EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

Digging further in I think I have the answer to my question
It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

I guess when it comes to comparing with Corbyn or Farron (am I too late to copyright Mr Farwrong?) that is credible.

Amazingly Farron is viewed as worse than Corbyn when it comes to becoming a PM
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:55 pm

Carswell not standing, and will support Conservatives

I do hope UKIP win no MPs this time around
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Strawman @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:57 pm

Dirk wrote:It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.


This is the line the Sun, The Mail etc. are pushing, when the reality is the UK will have to accept whatever deal the EU offers.
User avatar
Strawman
 
Posts: 37251
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:50 pm
Location: insignificant next to the power of the force

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:59 pm

Strawman wrote:
Dirk wrote:It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.


This is the line the Sun, The Mail etc. are pushing, when the reality is the UK will have to accept whatever deal the EU offers.

That isn't true. It is undoubtedly true that we have a weaker hand, but that doesn't mean we can't negotiate some deal. The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Strawman @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:02 pm

Dirk wrote: The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either


This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.
User avatar
Strawman
 
Posts: 37251
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:50 pm
Location: insignificant next to the power of the force

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Greg66 @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:06 pm

A small part of me would like to see a LD/SNP/Lab coalition taking power on "withdraw A50 and cancel Brexit" platform purely to see the catastrophic meltdown it would cause on PH.
User avatar
Greg66
 
Posts: 2185
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:03 pm

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:09 pm

Strawman wrote:
Dirk wrote: The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either


This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.

There is no doubt Germany & france would rather we don't go to WTO.

But they won't give much up for it
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Strawman @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:13 pm

Dirk wrote:
Strawman wrote:
Dirk wrote: The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either


This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.

There is no doubt Germany & france would rather we don't go to WTO.

But they won't give much up for it


Agreed. Germany prefers to take economic loss, they can afford it I suppose, than sacrifice principles, recently the sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine for an example.
User avatar
Strawman
 
Posts: 37251
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:50 pm
Location: insignificant next to the power of the force

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Pigeon @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:20 pm

Dirk wrote:It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.


Given the way the Tories' activities so far have been aimed at making a bad situation as much worse as possible, one has to ask: are these people fcuking blind or what?
User avatar
Pigeon
CTF Technical Expert
CTF Technical Expert
 
Posts: 23424
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2008 8:50 pm
Location: All alone in the crazy city

Re: General ELection 2017

Post by Dirk @ Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:22 pm

Pigeon wrote:
Dirk wrote:It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.


Given the way the Tories' activities so far have been aimed at making a bad situation as much worse as possible, one has to ask: are these people fcuking blind or what?

Probably more the case that they are not blind to how Corbyn is blind to anything that does not accord with his views
User avatar
Dirk
 
Posts: 28768
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 pm
Highscores: 5

PreviousNext

Return to Political Corner

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

yt
  Enable youtube titles