General ELection 2017

[ttwiggy]

I don't believe the polls can be that wrong.

<Raises eyebrows>

But probs a CTF bubble. What with us lot being so caring and inclusive.

I used to think NP&E on PH was a bubble.But then Brexit and Trump.

[Deuteronomy]

Interesting if surprising poll



EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

That graph is a mess!

[minimoog]

I'm torn between Lab or LD. I've never voted Con and I never will. Which is a bugger because I live in a safe Con-stituency. As in most places the LDs were wiped out round here in the last election, down 23%. In 2010 they were runners-up, but still 10 points adrift of Con. So could they regain that 23% and add another 10+%? Of course not. Then again Lab winning a big rural seat is equally fantastical.

I guess all that means it doesn't really matter, in my case.

[Tokyo Sexwale]

Interesting if surprising poll



EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

Whoever thought that way of depicting it made sense needs beating.

I too am considering a LD vote.

[S1K]

Given that I'm a remoaner and that Labour have been doing their absolute best to make themselves completely unelectable over the past couple of years I can't see who I can vote for other than the Lib Dems.

[Greg66]

Despite considering a LD vote, I have a feeling that come the day the prospect of giving an inch to a party - or collection of parties - who would happily reinstate the 50p top tax rate (if not more) and impose the "mansion" tax will be enough to dissuade me from voting LD.

Not sure who I will vote for in those circs.

[Dirk]

Whoever thought that way of depicting it made sense needs beating.

Would you prefer this?



First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out

[minimoog]

First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out

I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?

[Strawman]

Also talking about a 2020 election so irrelevant now May has gone early for re-election.

[Rod Rammage]

Ridiculous chart. If I could be arsed looking at it for 5 mins I might figure it out, but I simply cannot. Be arsed!

[minimoog]

Ridiculous chart. If I could be arsed looking at it for 5 mins I might figure it out, but I simply cannot. Be arsed!

So the circles represents how people voted in 2015 by part and Leave/Remain, and shows how many would vote for each party in 2020.

So the first solid red blob on the top line shows that 13.0 somethings* of 2015 Labour Remain voters would now** vote Conservative. As would 23 something of LD Remain voters, etc.


*can't be %, as the total in each category is >100
**not now, in 2020

[minimoog]

y

[Dirk]

First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out

I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?

A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.

[minimoog]

Also talking about a 2020 election so irrelevant now May has gone early for re-election.

I'd say that make it more relevant. In as much as any poll is...

A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.

[span]

I'm going LD too.

That area's got a conservative MP now but LDs have previously done well there. The constituency voted leave but not by a ridiculous margin ALTHOUGH if you add on the 12% of ukippers from the last GE onto the cons, LD would have no chance.

So, shrug, fingers crossed I suppose.

[Tokyo Sexwale]

First one has a lot of information in it. Hard to present so much in any other form. Worth the time it takes to figure it out

I thought I'd grasped it on a second look and was about to agree until I noticed the numbers for each category add up to more than 100.

So it can't be percentages, so what is it?

A measure of preference for voting that way. They don't add up to 100 because they are scores for different groups

It does explain it in the text.

A graph should explain something visually, like your second one - makes perfect sense. If you have to keep referring to keys you may as well just look at a table of data IMO.

[DI Burnside]

Historically I've been a Tory voter, but have in the past voted Labour and Lib Dem (once each) because their policies at the time were most aligned to me. To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.

I'm leaning towards LD this time, but may end up Tory depending in what happens in the coming weeks.

[minimoog]

To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.

Your face is a bit stupid.

[DI Burnside]

To be frank I think anyone who spouts the lines "I've always voted for X no matter what" or "I'll never vote for X no matter what" is being a bit stupid.

Your face is a bit stupid.

Well yes, but not as stupid as you.

[Pigeon]

I'm torn between Lab or LD. I've never voted Con and I never will. Which is a bugger because I live in a safe Con-stituency. As in most places the LDs were wiped out round here in the last election, down 23%. In 2010 they were runners-up, but still 10 points adrift of Con. So could they regain that 23% and add another 10+%? Of course not. Then again Lab winning a big rural seat is equally fantastical.

I guess all that means it doesn't really matter, in my case.

I've got just the same problem. Natural inclination to vote Labour because Corbyn is already diminished by disappointment that he's totally failed to get them to actually BE an Opposition and they're still just as useless as they were without him, and the suicidal tendencies displayed in that Hansard pretty well put the seal on it. On the other hand the Lib Dems disappointed the fcuk out of me by getting into bed with the Tories last time round, but in that Hansard it's pretty well only the Lib Dem chap who's talking any kind of sense. But on the third hand his name does not appear in the list of the 13 (Fcuksake, how few?) MPs who voted against the early election, and most of them are Labour:

Ronnie Campbell (Labour - Blyth Valley)
Ann Clwyd (Labour - Cynon Valley)
Paul Farrelly (Labour - Newcastle-under-Lyme)
Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour - Poplar and Limehouse)
Clive Lewis (Labour - Norwich South)
Fiona Mactaggart (Labour - Slough)
Liz McInnes (Labour - Heywood and Middleton)
Dennis Skinner (Labour - Bolsover)
Graham Stringer (Labour - Blackley and Broughton)
Lady Hermon (Independent - North Down)
Natalie McGarry (Independent - Glasgow East)
Michelle Thomson (Independent - Edinburgh West)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP - Belfast South)

And on the fourth hand in a safe Tory seat it probably doesn't make a blind bugger of difference anyway.

[Dirk]

Interesting if surprising poll
...
EVen among Remain voters, people who voted LD are less likely (68.4) to vote for the same party this time than Tory (76.6) or Labour (71.5)

Source and credit:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

Digging further in I think I have the answer to my question
It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

I guess when it comes to comparing with Corbyn or Farron (am I too late to copyright Mr Farwrong?) that is credible.

Amazingly Farron is viewed as worse than Corbyn when it comes to becoming a PM

[Dirk]

Carswell not standing, and will support Conservatives

I do hope UKIP win no MPs this time around

[Strawman]

It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

This is the line the Sun, The Mail etc. are pushing, when the reality is the UK will have to accept whatever deal the EU offers.

[Dirk]

It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

This is the line the Sun, The Mail etc. are pushing, when the reality is the UK will have to accept whatever deal the EU offers.

That isn't true. It is undoubtedly true that we have a weaker hand, but that doesn't mean we can't negotiate some deal. The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either

[Strawman]

The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either

This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.

[Greg66]

A small part of me would like to see a LD/SNP/Lab coalition taking power on "withdraw A50 and cancel Brexit" platform purely to see the catastrophic meltdown it would cause on PH.

[Dirk]

The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either

This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.

There is no doubt Germany & france would rather we don't go to WTO.

But they won't give much up for it

[Strawman]

The EU countries would prefer for us not to move to WTO rules either

This is another fantasy of the Hard Line Brexit crew, most countries in the EU couldn't give a shit because it won't affect them, the rest would prefer to stick to the EU principles of the four free movements, than give in to the demands of one member who wants to leave anyway.

There is no doubt Germany & france would rather we don't go to WTO.

But they won't give much up for it

Agreed. Germany prefers to take economic loss, they can afford it I suppose, than sacrifice principles, recently the sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine for an example.

[Pigeon]

It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

Given the way the Tories' activities so far have been aimed at making a bad situation as much worse as possible, one has to ask: are these people fcuking blind or what?

[Dirk]

It appears that even amoung Remainers who didn't vote Tory last time, the Tories are favoured for being able to negotiate the best deal when we do leave.

Given the way the Tories' activities so far have been aimed at making a bad situation as much worse as possible, one has to ask: are these people fcuking blind or what?

Probably more the case that they are not blind to how Corbyn is blind to anything that does not accord with his views