Election 2019

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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:19 am

Turntable wrote:Something that I was wondering and minornut's comment made me think:

Am I right in thinking there is a direct correlation between traditional labour strongholds and strong Brexit support? Who is that typical mixed-up person going to vote for now?
Will they still end up as labour but with a much smaller majority or is something odd like the Brexit party going to start sweeping those seats up?


I’m betting Brexit party will take some of those seats. Then it’ll be a coalition bun fight.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Deuteronomy @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:32 am

I'll be voting LibDem unless a tactical vote for Labour works - but we're traditionally Lib, so I think we'll be fine.

I'd not like to vote Labour as I don't want to ever support Corbyn, his stubbornness and intransigence has led to the weakest and worst opposition this country has ever seen.

There's no way on Earth I'll vote Con - never thought I'd say that.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:01 am

On topic but possibly not so relevant for you GB voters, but there's a couple of interesting constituency bunfights lining up in Norn Iron.

Belfast North has been a Unionist seat since forever. Iconically so, for some locals. It's now held by Nigel Dodds, DUP. He had a 2000 majority over SF in the last election. But crucially, he had an election pact with the UU where they didn't run a candidate to avoid splitting the Unionist vote. There's a new UU leader now though who reckons the DUP are a disgrace and who won't do any pacts this time around.

Which brings Arlene Fosters seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone into play too.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minimoog @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:54 am

Turntable wrote:Something that I was wondering and minornut's comment made me think:

Am I right in thinking there is a direct correlation between traditional labour strongholds and strong Brexit support? Who is that typical mixed-up person going to vote for now?
Will they still end up as labour but with a much smaller majority or is something odd like the Brexit party going to start sweeping those seats up?


I still think there's mileage in the theory that a good chunk of the Lab heartland vote for Leave was a protest vote against the Elite Establishment represented by Cameron and Osborne who had shafted those areas for years but were strongly advocating Remain. Oh you stuck-up tw@ts want to remain do you? Fcuk you!

Now thanks to social and traditional media propaganda the Elite Establishment in their eyes is represented by other pro-remain politicians, the Judiciary, etc. Their efforts to limit the impacts of Brexit or stop it all together (or in the case of the judiciary, simply ensure everyone is playing by the Rules) are seen as a traitorous attempt to deny them what they want and subvert THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE!!11111!

The fact that those herding them in this direction - ERG, Farage, etc are basically the same sort of people they were railing against before the vote is ignored as an inconvenient detail.

The upshot is I think they'll vote for whoever promises them the thing they've decided they absolutely must have, ignoring the fact those they're voting for couldn't not give less of a fcuk about them and their shitty Northern lives. So yeah I do think at lot of Lab Brexit headbangers will now vote Con. There'll be a fraction for who this is a step too far, or for who nothing less than the hardest of Brexits will do, and they'll vote TBP.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:13 am

CBP should win more seats than TBP, but I'm afraid that seems unlikely.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:16 am

Turntable wrote:Something that I was wondering and minornut's comment made me think:

Am I right in thinking there is a direct correlation between traditional labour strongholds and strong Brexit support? Who is that typical mixed-up person going to vote for now?
Will they still end up as labour but with a much smaller majority or is something odd like the Brexit party going to start sweeping those seats up?

I think that’s the biggest problem with politics today. There is no nuance, only black and white. You either support Brexit or you don’t and you must vote accordingly at a general/council/european election. So tribal and divisive. I hate it.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:17 am

As an aside I noticed Green Party lost their deposit here last time round so I may throw them my vote.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:22 am

manfromdelmonte wrote:CBP should win more seats than TBP, but I'm afraid that seems unlikely.

Not sure what TBP is but ID will be delighted for his signature dish
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Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:50 pm

Interesting analysis here

Image
Image


Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%


Voting intention among 2017 CON voters
Con - 73%
Brexit Party - 14%
Lib Dem - 9%

Voting intention among 2017 LAB voters
Labour - 55%
Lib Dem - 21%
Green - 8%
Con - 7%
Brexit Party - 7%


Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%


Voting intention among CON+REMAIN voters
Con - 61%
Lib Dem - 31%

Voting intention among LAB+REMAIN voters
Labour - 58%
Lib Dem - 27%
Green - 9%


https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1190217567782215680?s=21
Last edited by thekungfury on Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:12 pm

The first graph shows a small group who voted Remain and now intend to vote for the Brexit party. That's some mixed up puppies right there
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:08 pm

Dirk wrote:The first graph shows a small group who voted Remain and now intend to vote for the Brexit party. That's some mixed up puppies right there

I guess everybody is entitled to change their mind, as plenty of people are apparently doing so the other way.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by stuart @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:42 pm

I don't understand our political system and I'm probably looking at this from a naive / overly simplistic point of view and missing something key that forces our political system to be apparently fcuking retarded.

Anyway, we have a bunch of people vying to be elected and they and the parties they represent have their beliefs on how things should be run.

These people and parties then go on an election campaign where they try to smear the other people and parties and try to convince everyone that their ideas are best. We get short interviews with politicians in the various media, where we have a number of problems:

1) They get asked really complicated questions that have really complicated answers and are expected to give their answer in the form of a 30 second sound-bite. There's apparently no scope for long form answers or actual substantive deep dives into their proposed solutions.

2) I've never heard a politician from one party say the other parties idea here is really good, and we would actually just do that... It's always left v right, labour v conservative or whoever.

3) They get asked a question and answer another completely different question... Why is this put up with?

To my point number two above, we have a number of issues the country needs to figure out. Things like enviromentalism, welfare, NHS, homelessness, crime, drug problems, industry regulation, public transport, council matters, policing, education, finance, science, art etc. I simply refuse to believe that one party, be it labour or conservative or greens or whoever, has the best solution to all these problems. It's just seems so staggeringly unlikely.

Then we have the nonsense of Prime Ministers questions which seems to be run like a primary school where the teacher has relinquished control the unrully childrens. They heckle each other, shout and generally act like stupid fcuking little children. If we have a problem at work, we get the best people in the room who we think can help solve the problem and we all work together. I might have one idea, Bob might have another but you listen to each others ideas and take the best overall solution.

Running the country shouldn't be a fcuking tribal competition!

Then we have people who treat it like a sport or a tribe and these people look at an election as something that is there to be won. Their side has to win and the other side has to lose. It gets dirty, tribal, there's name calling and adhominem attacks all over. Biased media.

And that's the problem, isn't it?

An election is looked at as something to win.

It's a competition. Where it should be an opportunity for the country to find the best people to help it succeed in the long-term and come together to find the best solutions to the problems we face. And it's not seen that like. I hate it and just feel it's all a complete, depressing, waste of time.

What a wasted opportunity.
Last edited by stuart on Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by stuart @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 2:48 pm

It's money, isn't it?

It's always money.

Politicians see an election as an opportunity to get paid or continue to be paid. THey don't actually care about making the country a better, they just want paid.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by S1K @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:36 pm

While I agree with a good deal of what you say Stuart you are looking at the least edifying aspect of parliament in PMQ’s. Try watching some committees on BBC Parliament and you’ll see exactly the sort of cross party working you’d like. There are many cases all the time of members from different parties with mutual interests and expertise working together on amendments to bills too.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Frik @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:13 pm

stuart wrote:It's money, isn't it?

It's always money.

Politicians see an election as an opportunity to get paid or continue to be paid. THey don't actually care about making the country a better, they just want paid.

It's not worth the money, seriously. There's many easier ways to earn a crust.

Read this and you can see why you have to be a bit not-normal to want to be an MP:

Why We Get the Wrong Politicians
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Pigeon @ Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:03 pm

stuart wrote:I don't understand our political system and I'm probably looking at this from a naive / overly simplistic point of view and missing something key that forces our political system to be apparently fcuking retarded.


People.

stuart wrote:1) They get asked really complicated questions that have really complicated answers and are expected to give their answer in the form of a 30 second sound-bite. There's apparently no scope for long form answers or actual substantive deep dives into their proposed solutions.


We've got far too fixated on the supposed "need" to pander to the fuckwits. The reasoning seems to be something like: a large part of the audience consists of people who are too thick to understand a long answer and/or too shit to pay attention long enough to hear it, therefore we have to make sure nobody says more than ten words in sequence and they have to be simple words. Also, the politicians like it because it makes it easier for them to avoid having to explain the indefensible, and the interviewers like it because it means they can get away with being shit at interviewing and don't have to be more intelligent than most of the audience so any old cnut can be one.

Of course they ought to be selecting interviewers who have the intelligence to recognise that the politicians aren't answering the question and the gumption to pull them up on it, demanding answers that go into all the relevant details, and allowing the thickos in the audience to get fcuked (they won't learn anything either way, but at least this way they might know they don't know anything, and it might even help those of them who are thick because they are too fcuking lazy to think by forcing them not to be). But it's not going to happen now we're in the Age of Stupid.

stuart wrote:3) They get asked a question and answer another completely different question... Why is this put up with?


Partly see above, partly this is something people do all the time anyway so they don't have to consider the possibility that they might be wrong. You must surely have experienced the argument with the infuriating fcuking cnut who can't actually refute any of your points so they mentally rewrite everything you say into something they can knock down and then insist they've got the right of it even though their answer doesn't even make sense in the context. And you can repeat until you're blue in the face that whatever the fcuk they're talking about has nothing to do with what you actually said, but they'll still carry on talking about it and acting as if the argument has moved on to the next point when the first point hasn't actually even been considered.

Then to make it worse there are far too many people whose basic model of conversation is that anything either person utters is merely another encoding of ACK and don't understand that the idea is actually to exchange information, so when someone does this to them they don't even notice, and obliviously go along with it instead of trying to pull the wanker up on it. And the more often the wanker gets away with it the more entrenched a pattern it becomes and the less able they are to engage in any kind of argument at all.

The relevance of this to crap interviewers and evasive politicians is, I hope, obvious.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:22 am

Farage says he is not standing himself. Probably because with Boris rejecting the pact he knows he would fail to get in once again and doesn't want to face the embarrassment. Again
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:23 am

Just came to say the same. Haha you tweed coward!

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Re: Election 2019

Post by Disastrous @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:25 am

Is anyone else hoping that TBP splits the Tory/Brexiteer vote??

I’m weirdly hoping Farage does quite well and we get some sort of opposition coalition.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by S1K @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:30 am

The Brexit Party took a lot of Labour votes too last time.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:33 am

I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs
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Re: Election 2019

Post by minimoog @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:39 am

Dirk wrote:I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs


Thing is Corbyn can be turfed out of government relatively quickly and easily. Brexit, not so much.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:04 pm

minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs


Thing is Corbyn can be turfed out of government relatively quickly and easily. Brexit, not so much.

I acknowledge that.

But I think we are too far down the path of Brexit now. The continuing uncertainty is worse than actually leaving.
If Tories get in, we will go with the plan now
If LDs get in we would Remain- but I don't believe there is a chance of that
If Lab get in then we will have more uncertainty and I have no idea what would happen in the end.

That does not mean that I rule out LDs. I would like to see their manifesto first . But my priority is keeping Corbyn out for a number of reasons. I suspect that the Tories are the best bet for that
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Paul H @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:26 pm

Dirk wrote:The continuing uncertainty is worse than actually leaving.


No it isn't.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:41 pm

minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs


Thing is Corbyn can be turfed out of government relatively quickly and easily. Brexit, not so much.

Corbyn will also Brexit though.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:14 pm

Most likely outcome is a coalition government, Corbyn then has an excuse not to Brexit because the LD/SNP/Greens/PC wouldn't let him. The Tories have only achieved 1.5 X Labour seats since the war (in 1983) so it is unlikely they will do it now, especially after the shambolic last 3 1/2 years, Boris is a marmite candidate and gets boo'ed everywhere he goes. With a split vote, coalition is the only route to power.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:24 pm

Don't understand what you think Tories need 1.5x labour seats for.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:38 pm

To get the majority needed to form a government, did you notice they failed to do that in 2017 ? Despite starting the campaign with a 22% poll lead over Labour.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:40 pm

thekungfury wrote:
minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs


Thing is Corbyn can be turfed out of government relatively quickly and easily. Brexit, not so much.

Corbyn will also Brexit though.


Yes, this. I don’t know why people continue to think that Corbyn must be pro-remain just because he’s opposed to the Tories.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:54 pm

Oh - you just mean that given expecting seats of other parties, to form a majority they are likely to need more than 1.5
Odd way of saying it.

And they got a majority in 2015 without getting 1.5x labour seats. They could do again
And 1983 wasn't the only time they got 1.5 labour seats. they did in 1987 for example

I too find the assertion that Labour are now a Remain party odd. If remaining is the be all and end all for you then voting then voting LD is surely the only sensible course of action In England?
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