Election 2019

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Re: Election 2019

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:05 pm

Paul H wrote:
Dirk wrote:The continuing uncertainty is worse than actually leaving.


No it isn't.


Agreed.

The uncertainty has certainly been terrible for everyone over the last 3 years and another year will be terrible for everyone for another year. But I feel that that will be far less terrible than 50 years of being shat on by every other country who sees us for what we really are once we're out of the EU.

The other thing that pisses me off is that all of this damage caused by the uncertainty was 100% predictable, yet how much did this figure in the remain campaign? Or in the tiny minds of the leave voters?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:00 pm

manfromdelmonte wrote:
Paul H wrote:
Dirk wrote:The continuing uncertainty is worse than actually leaving.


No it isn't.


Agreed.

The uncertainty has certainly been terrible for everyone over the last 3 years and another year will be terrible for everyone for another year. But I feel that that will be far less terrible than 50 years of being shat on by every other country who sees us for what we really are once we're out of the EU.

The other thing that pisses me off is that all of this damage caused by the uncertainty was 100% predictable, yet how much did this figure in the remain campaign? Or in the tiny minds of the leave voters?


Careful MFDM, you know you’re not allowed to call leave voters thick?

Obviously leaving on any terms is utter madness. We should remain. However, there’s a small part of me that wants to them to leave with the hardest of Brexits so that we can see the devastation and suffering it’ll cause. Whoever will be in government will be crawling back to the EU on their knees, and will have lost all the hard fought vetoes we currently have. It may also result in the end of the Union.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Pigeon @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:04 pm

Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote:
thekungfury wrote:
minimoog wrote:
Dirk wrote:I'm hoping for anything but Corbyn. Or Farage obvs


Thing is Corbyn can be turfed out of government relatively quickly and easily. Brexit, not so much.


Corbyn will also Brexit though.


Yes, this. I don't know why people continue to think that Corbyn must be pro-remain just because he's opposed to the Tories.


Corbyn will allow a second referendum. That at least keeps the option of remaining open until it happens, and might even cause it to come to pass, if we're lucky. In any case, it's the best we can hope for since our crappy electoral system does not allow the pure Remain option to be represented.

My biggest worry is that Remain supporters who don't understand that the electoral system does not allow the election to function as a proxy referendum, and also those who do understand it but think it doesn't apply to them, will insist on treating it as a referendum anyway, and vote Lib Dem in enough seats where otherwise Labour would stand a reasonable chance of taking them away from the Tories that those seats get won by Tories, and this gives the Tories a majority, in which case all hope is lost.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:02 pm

Pigeon wrote:Corbyn will allow a second referendum.

But won’t commit to saying whether Labour would back Remain or Leave.

He’s a Leaver, always has been and always will be. We would Brexit under Corbyn. 100%.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:26 pm

Doctor Congo wrote:Careful MFDM, you know you’re not allowed to call leave voters thick?


Even though I was joking, there is plenty of research to back up exactly that. But that's for another day.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Pigeon @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:10 am

thekungfury wrote:
Pigeon wrote:Corbyn will allow a second referendum.


But won't commit to saying whether Labour would back Remain or Leave.

He's a Leaver, always has been and always will be. We would Brexit under Corbyn. 100%.


Agree with all of that except the figure. That depends what the referendum result is.

I don't want a second referendum because nothing has happened since the first one to shake my conviction that the public in general are a bunch of thick tw@ts and I don't have confidence in the result. What I do want as far as that particular question is concerned is a government that says "Fcuksake, this was a fcuking stupid idea from the beginning and we're not going to do it, hey Brussels, here's our withdrawal of A50". But that is definitely something we can be sure we're not going to get, so hoping for a second referendum and then hoping it goes the right way is the best we can do.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:36 am

manfromdelmonte wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:Careful MFDM, you know you’re not allowed to call leave voters thick?

I just don't think it is helpful in a democratic society

Even though I was joking, there is plenty of research to back up exactly that. But that's for another day.

Of course if you want to really start discussing the IQ of voters based on evidence rather than just because they disagree with you then people who voted Labour in 2015 were on average more stupid than those who voted UKIP

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/whether-you-look-at-leaders-or-voters-labour-is-now-the-stupidest-party/
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:07 am

tanglerat wrote:On topic but possibly not so relevant for you GB voters, but there's a couple of interesting constituency bunfights lining up in Norn Iron.

Belfast North has been a Unionist seat since forever. Iconically so, for some locals. It's now held by Nigel Dodds, DUP. He had a 2000 majority over SF in the last election. But crucially, he had an election pact with the UU where they didn't run a candidate to avoid splitting the Unionist vote. There's a new UU leader now though who reckons the DUP are a disgrace and who won't do any pacts this time around.

Which brings Arlene Fosters seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone into play too.


Over the weekend, the UP has folded and won't be fielding a candidate in North Belfast, to unify the Unionist vote behind the DUP's Nigel Dodds (+2k majority in last GE) fight against SF's John Finucane (son of lawyer John Finucane, murdered by Loyalists colluding with Crown Forces). Stories going around last week of local UP activists being intimidated by Loyalists to get their party to stand aside. So Finucane & SF are calling on anti-Brexit Unionists to vote SF rather than for Dodds, who led the DUP's Brexit love-in with the Tories and got thrown under the Boris Bus. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:33 am

As I'm not standing in the next election I expect as much media coverage as Nigel Farage gets, especially since I have never been an MP either.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:35 am

Pigeon wrote:the public in general are a bunch of thick tw@ts and I don't have confidence in the result.

Ricky Gervais was saying we shouldn’t ask the public because they’re so thick that we have to write Do Not Drink on bottles of bleach. Take that warning off for 2yrs, then do the referendum.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am

tanglerat wrote:
tanglerat wrote:On topic but possibly not so relevant for you GB voters, but there's a couple of interesting constituency bunfights lining up in Norn Iron.

Belfast North has been a Unionist seat since forever. Iconically so, for some locals. It's now held by Nigel Dodds, DUP. He had a 2000 majority over SF in the last election. But crucially, he had an election pact with the UU where they didn't run a candidate to avoid splitting the Unionist vote. There's a new UU leader now though who reckons the DUP are a disgrace and who won't do any pacts this time around.

Which brings Arlene Fosters seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone into play too.


Over the weekend, the UP has folded and won't be fielding a candidate in North Belfast, to unify the Unionist vote behind the DUP's Nigel Dodds (+2k majority in last GE) fight against SF's John Finucane (son of lawyer John Finucane, murdered by Loyalists colluding with Crown Forces). Stories going around last week of local UP activists being intimidated by Loyalists to get their party to stand aside. So Finucane & SF are calling on anti-Brexit Unionists to vote SF rather than for Dodds, who led the DUP's Brexit love-in with the Tories and got thrown under the Boris Bus. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

No offence, obv, but it’s funny how little I care about NI. If it didn’t exist anymore it wouldn’t trouble me in the slightest.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:55 am

thekungfury wrote:No offence, obv, but it’s funny how little I care about NI. If it didn’t exist anymore it wouldn’t trouble me in the slightest.


Yeah, none of it matters until they start planting bombs and shit. Which they'd quite happily stopped doing until this whole Brexit shambles stated up.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:57 am

Dirk wrote:
manfromdelmonte wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:Careful MFDM, you know you’re not allowed to call leave voters thick?

I just don't think it is helpful in a democratic society

Even though I was joking, there is plenty of research to back up exactly that. But that's for another day.

Of course if you want to really start discussing the IQ of voters based on evidence rather than just because they disagree with you then people who voted Labour in 2015 were on average more stupid than those who voted UKIP

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/whether-you-look-at-leaders-or-voters-labour-is-now-the-stupidest-party/


Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:02 pm

Doctor Congo wrote:
Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.

Ah yes, all evidence that doesn't confirm with your views must be subject to an ad hominem attack. Ignoring the fact that he didn't do the research, just reported on it

Just go with your beliefs without any evidence. Much safer.
Ironically just what you accuse those stupid Leave supporters of doing
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:26 pm

Dirk wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:
Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.

Ah yes, all evidence that doesn't confirm with your views must be subject to an ad hominem attack. Ignoring the fact that he didn't do the research, just reported on it

Just go with your beliefs without any evidence. Much safer.
Ironically just what you accuse those stupid Leave supporters of doing


= drama queen.

Thanks for posting the most predictable response of the day.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:53 pm

Careless Whisperer wrote:
thekungfury wrote:No offence, obv, but it’s funny how little I care about NI. If it didn’t exist anymore it wouldn’t trouble me in the slightest.


Yeah, none of it matters until they start planting bombs and shit. Which they'd quite happily stopped doing until this whole Brexit shambles stated up.


No offence taken at all. It's a shambles of a failed statelet backwater.

It has been kind of amusing for the past couple of years, witnessing the GB public realize what sort of belief systems the party propping up the Tories has.

Nearly as amusing as watching those Tories toss them under the bus.

It must be Boris's worst nightmare right now - a GE result that means he'd need the DUP support again.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Paul H @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:11 pm

tanglerat wrote:
It must be Boris's worst nightmare right now - a GE result that means he'd need the DUP support again.


The DUP are whores. Their support is always available but I think the price will have gone up.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:43 pm

Dirk wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:
Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.

Ah yes, all evidence that doesn't confirm with your views must be subject to an ad hominem attack. Ignoring the fact that he didn't do the research, just reported on it

Just go with your beliefs without any evidence. Much safer.
Ironically just what you accuse those stupid Leave supporters of doing

Seriously Dirk if you quote Toby Young writing in The Spectator and cherry picking old studies as a valid source of evidence then you’ve lost your argument before it’s begun.

He’s extrapolated UKIP’s 2 seats in 2015 to say their voters are more intelligent than Labour’s. It’s a nonsense piece of “journalism” that deserves derision. Do better.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:59 pm

thekungfury wrote:
Dirk wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:
Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.

Ah yes, all evidence that doesn't confirm with your views must be subject to an ad hominem attack. Ignoring the fact that he didn't do the research, just reported on it

Just go with your beliefs without any evidence. Much safer.
Ironically just what you accuse those stupid Leave supporters of doing

Seriously Dirk if you quote Toby Young writing in The Spectator and cherry picking old studies as a valid source of evidence then you’ve lost your argument before it’s begun.

He’s extrapolated UKIP’s 2 seats in 2015 to say their voters are more intelligent than Labour’s. It’s a nonsense piece of “journalism” that deserves derision. Do better.

I totally agree that the research was flawed (though not for the reason you say, it was based on raw data from all constituencies, not just 2). Its also completely irrelevant because we live in a democracy where every vote is equal.

There is clear evidence that the average IQ of voters for Green and LDs are higher. That doesn't mean more intelligent people vote them. The Tories and Labour attract similar or larger proportions of intelligent people, but also far more less intelligent people which brings their averages down.

But the point is that the evidence for leave voters being stupid is equally deficient. Mostly it was based on % who had university education, or other other exam grade based information. However that overlooked the fact the Leave voters were in general older, and so less likely to have had the opportunity for university education. Whereas more recently a higher proportion do. Similar factors apply to exam grade given the exam grade inflation that has occurred. Thus there is little real evidence to suggest that Leave voters are significantly more thick.

Or indeed that anyone that disagrees with Dr Congo on every other issue is. But still the assertions continue

So why not have a rational debate about the merits of approaches rather than just repeat tired prejudices?
Because every time someone repeats that tired, unproven insult, their opinion is hardened, not weakened
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Careless Whisperer @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:10 pm

Dirk wrote:...we live in a democracy where every vote is equal.

Really? I was under the impression there is a growing call for electoral reform because this is categorically not the case...
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:14 pm

Dirk wrote:
thekungfury wrote:He’s extrapolated UKIP’s 2 seats in 2015 to say their voters are more intelligent than Labour’s. It’s a nonsense piece of “journalism” that deserves derision. Do better.

I totally agree that the research was flawed (though not for the reason you say, it was based on raw data from all constituencies, not just 2).

They took all constituencies and said “Labour voters are X” and then took all the UKIP constituencies (my mistake, there was 1 seat, not 2) and said “therefore UKIP voters are more intelligent than Labour”

Which you repeated.
Dirk wrote:Of course if you want to really start discussing the IQ of voters based on evidence rather than just because they disagree with you then people who voted Labour in 2015 were on average more stupid than those who voted UKIP

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/whether-you-look-at-leaders-or-voters-labour-is-now-the-stupidest-party/


But you want to disagree with this clear evidence from a real study, not a university student project.
Image

Like I said, do better.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by ttwiggy @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:16 pm

Careless Whisperer wrote:
Dirk wrote:...we live in a democracy where every vote is equal.

Really? I was under the impression there is a growing call for electoral reform because this is categorically not the case...


Exactly. I'm 47 years old, my vote has never 'counted' at all.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:18 pm

ttwiggy wrote:
Careless Whisperer wrote:
Dirk wrote:...we live in a democracy where every vote is equal.

Really? I was under the impression there is a growing call for electoral reform because this is categorically not the case...


Exactly. I'm 47 years old, my vote has never 'counted' at all.

I think the point he’s making is that a poor thicko’s vote is just as valid as a rich braino’s.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:19 pm

As I said above
But the point is that the evidence for leave voters being stupid is equally deficient. Mostly it was based on % who had university education, or other other exam grade based information. However that overlooked the fact the Leave voters were in general older, and so less likely to have had the opportunity for university education. Whereas more recently a higher proportion do. Similar factors apply to exam grade given the exam grade inflation that has occurred. Thus there is little real evidence to suggest that Leave voters are significantly more thick.


You've just re-presented the same flawed evidence that ignores that fact

So you do better. I'm not trying to make any assertion of the IQ of how people vote in reality. It is irrelevant. But if you want to, at least present some decent evidence

And yes teeks, I do believe a poor thicko's vote is just as valid as a rich braino's

And as a rich braino I hope that is always true
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Bodhi @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:24 pm

Dirk wrote:
And as a rich braino I hope that is always true


Urgh.

Dirk, that comment definitely falls into the thick category.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by DI Burnside @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:31 pm

Dirk always gets like this when mating season finishes.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Frik @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:39 pm

Leave voters were on average less educated, that is a fact. You might infer that they are less intelligent too, but you couldn't prove it from that. What has IQ got to do with anything anyway? It's a vague measure that doesn't mean much ultimately.

An average also doesn't define an individual which is why it angers so many leavers to be described as thick. Can't blame them at all.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:40 pm

Dirk the evidence is very clear to see. On average Leave voters have lower education levels, lower social standing and lower income. If you look you’ll see the median ages are not as clear as old=leave, young=remain. That big cloud of numbers 40-50 had every chance to go to university. It was arguably easier for us because we didn’t get saddled with massive debts.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:58 pm

thekungfury wrote:Dirk the evidence is very clear to see. On average Leave voters have lower education levels, lower social standing and lower income. If you look you’ll see the median ages are not as clear as old=leave, young=remain. That big cloud of numbers 40-50 had every chance to go to university. It was arguably easier for us because we didn’t get saddled with massive debts.

You can only make such a visual estimate if there is a linear relationship between age and educational qualifications. Which plainly there isn't.

So its just supposition.

It may well be the case but without normalising the data for age you cannot tell from those graphs. Or when you normalise you might find it is statistically insignificant. Or not, but who cares. Thats not how democracies work.

I find it interesting that the "liberal elite" get so irate that the educationally less qualified (I agree with Frik's distinction) didn't vote the way the elite wanted them too. If the Tories were to make any such assertion the screams would be audible from the moon.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:04 pm

Dirk wrote:
thekungfury wrote:Dirk the evidence is very clear to see. On average Leave voters have lower education levels, lower social standing and lower income. If you look you’ll see the median ages are not as clear as old=leave, young=remain. That big cloud of numbers 40-50 had every chance to go to university. It was arguably easier for us because we didn’t get saddled with massive debts.

You can only make such a visual estimate if there is a linear relationship between age and educational qualifications. Which plainly there isn't.

So its just supposition.

It may well be the case but without normalising the data for age you cannot tell from those graphs. Or when you normalise you might find it is statistically insignificant. Or not, but who cares. Thats not how democracies work.

I find it interesting that the "liberal elite" get so irate that the educationally less qualified (I agree with Frik's distinction) didn't vote the way the elite wanted them too. If the Tories were to make any such assertion the screams would be audible from the moon.


Well no they wouldn't cos space is a vacuum and sound doesn't travel in a vacuum.

Edumacation, see?
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