Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:30 pm

Hold the debate here.

Rules:
  1. No ad hominem. At all.
  2. No cut and paste where a link will do.
  3. Keep it civil.
My 2p: I don't believe there was an Aurora spy plane, with a pulse-jet engine, that has been successfully and more-or-less totally hidden from the public, despite being operational. I further contend that there is no credible evidence of any kind to suggest that Aurora has ever been anything more than a fantasy.

I don't doubt that the US government develops top-secret things of all kinds, all the time, but I would be willing to bet that most of it is tedious-looking yet fearfully clever and expensive things that go in satellites, so that the Merkin Gubmint can spy on us from the safety of LEO.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Hooli @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:32 pm

I'm pretty sure the technology for Aurora exists & may have even been tested. I doubt the plane has ever been built though, even the SR-71 was seen in photos before making it into service and that must have been maximum security all the way.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by deev @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:38 pm

Image
that was taken over the uk a few years ago, as the blackbird isnt flying anymore what caused it?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Hooli @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:40 pm

ive seen that pic before somewhere. read the whole thread with it, there are explainations there of what else can do it. something about gusts of wind breaking up contrails IIRC.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:40 pm

Hooli, I agree. The gear to make the thing almost certainly exists.

But being a cynical old fart, I have to ask the believers: "Is there an easier, less risky way to get the outcomes of Aurora?"

And the answer is "Yes, use a spy satellite, cuz they're a bit too high up to be shot down, don't need holidays or maintenance (cuz we just launch another one when they break), are there when we want them, and can provide the same imagery at a lower cost and without all that awkward business of flying into other peoples' airspace".

So what, in the presence of already extant spy satellites, does Aurora do that nothing else can?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by deev @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:42 pm

CommanderJameson wrote:Hooli, I agree. The gear to make the thing almost certainly exists.

But being a cynical old fart, I have to ask the believers: "Is there an easier, less risky way to get the outcomes of Aurora?"

And the answer is "Yes, use a spy satellite, cuz they're a bit too high up to be shot down, don't need holidays or maintenance (cuz we just launch another one when they break), are there when we want them, and can provide the same imagery at a lower cost and without all that awkward business of flying into other peoples' airspace".

So what, in the presence of already extant spy satellites, does Aurora do that nothing else can?

drop bombs
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:43 pm

deevlash wrote:Image
that was taken over the uk a few years ago, as the blackbird isnt flying anymore what caused it?

You have two choices.

Firstly, it's a secret US spy plane that absolutely no-one knows anything concrete about, with a propulsion system that hasn't been used since the second world war, flying at incredibly high altitudes at incredible speed.

Secondly, it's a normal plane with a contrail that's been disrupted by wind, or generate by a faulty engine.

Which, on balance, do you think is more likely?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Hooli @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:43 pm

CommanderJameson wrote:So what, in the presence of already extant spy satellites, does Aurora do that nothing else can?


same as the SR-71 did in its day.
get there quicker than a satellite because they dont move fast to adjust their orbits.
arrive when unexpected, as everyone can track satellites its not hard to do the secret stuff when you know there are no cameras above.
not use up satellites limited fuel supplies. once a satellite is out of fuel it's orbit will decay & its a lot of money to burn up just to get pics of something that might not be what you think.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:46 pm

Hooli wrote:
CommanderJameson wrote:So what, in the presence of already extant spy satellites, does Aurora do that nothing else can?


same as the SR-71 did in its day.
get there quicker than a satellite because they dont move fast to adjust their orbits.
arrive when unexpected, as everyone can track satellites its not hard to do the secret stuff when you know there are no cameras above.
not use up satellites limited fuel supplies. once a satellite is out of fuel it's orbit will decay & its a lot of money to burn up just to get pics of something that might not be what you think.

Yeah, but get where? Since the Russians have gone out of scope as The Bogeyman, who's so damned important that we can't wait for a bit to either overfly with a UAV (compared to anything else, they're cheap as chips) or a satellite?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Hooli @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:56 pm

Anywhere?

As far as i know most spy satellites are over the northern hemisphere. which leaves lots of countries who are getting near nuclear weapons & governments america doesnt like out of sight. I agree about the UAVs, they are quite possibly doing this role nowdays.
My point on time was, if you know a satellite comes over every four hours too look at the mountain your secret bomb factory is under it'd be quite easy to truck the bombs out for two hours at a time between flyovers. Adding a random overflight by a plane or UAV to the mix is the only way aerial surveillance will spot this.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by deev @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:03 pm

CommanderJameson wrote:
deevlash wrote:Image
that was taken over the uk a few years ago, as the blackbird isnt flying anymore what caused it?

You have two choices.

Firstly, it's a secret US spy plane that absolutely no-one knows anything concrete about, with a propulsion system that hasn't been used since the second world war, flying at incredibly high altitudes at incredible speed.

Secondly, it's a normal plane with a contrail that's been disrupted by wind, or generate by a faulty engine.

Which, on balance, do you think is more likely?

what do you mean the 2nd world war propulsion system? A scramjet leaves pulse rings like that. Im not saying its got to be that and not just some wind and a normal contrail but it does look a lot like a scramjet trail would.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:14 pm

deevlash wrote:what do you mean the 2nd world war propulsion system? A scramjet leaves pulse rings like that. Im not saying its got to be that and not just some wind and a normal contrail but it does look a lot like a scramjet trail would.

The hypothesis of Ted's is that Aurora has a pulse-jet propulsion system. Not a scramjet.

Anyway, you can look at scramjet videos here.

More information about HyShot here.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by deev @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:16 pm

CommanderJameson wrote:
deevlash wrote:what do you mean the 2nd world war propulsion system? A scramjet leaves pulse rings like that. Im not saying its got to be that and not just some wind and a normal contrail but it does look a lot like a scramjet trail would.

The hypothesis of Ted's is that Aurora has a pulse-jet propulsion system. Not a scramjet.

Anyway, you can look at scramjet videos here.

More information about HyShot here.

ted? as in sexy ted? have i missed a thread?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Hooli @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:18 pm

deevlash wrote:
ted? as in sexy ted? have i missed a thread?

indeed, see here.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Sexy Ted @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:22 pm

CommanderJameson wrote:Hooli, I agree. The gear to make the thing almost certainly exists.

But being a cynical old fart, I have to ask the believers: "Is there an easier, less risky way to get the outcomes of Aurora?"

And the answer is "Yes, use a spy satellite, cuz they're a bit too high up to be shot down, don't need holidays or maintenance (cuz we just launch another one when they break), are there when we want them, and can provide the same imagery at a lower cost and without all that awkward business of flying into other peoples' airspace".

So what, in the presence of already extant spy satellites, does Aurora do that nothing else can?


Spy satellites run on polar orbits. They cross both poles each time.
They run just behind sunrise and just before sunset to have shadows for perspective.
And have very limited manoevre fuel to allow for seasons etc.

During the Falklands war Casper Weinberger used up the manoevere fuel on several KH 11s and KH 12s to give the UK ground intelligence.
Which is why we gave him an honorary knighthood.

So spy satellites are very, very predictable.
Everyone in the miltary knows their timetables.
And can hide at the right time.

Predator, U2 , SR 71, Aurora etc do not run to a timetable. This makes them massively more valuable.
However the main opponent was and is Russia (and the former Soviet Union) with whom we have negotiated compliance measures that mean we can fly ordinary airplanes anywhere we want any time we want. So we don't need spy planes or satellites for this, the biggest job, any more.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by deev @ Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:26 pm

Hooli wrote:
deevlash wrote:
ted? as in sexy ted? have i missed a thread?

indeed, see here.


I like how he posts a link to a pistonheads thread where some guy called deevlash posted this :hehe:


deevlash wrote:
Chainguy wrote:As Ben Rich said on his deathbed to his best friend, 'We have stuff out there in the desert thats 50 years ahead of anything you can even imagine'

Did they let the quantum leap they established with the SR71 evaporate? No. Thats a 40+ year old design, and they have been busy with something for the last 30 years. They may not have had any 'known' projects to the layman, but the ol' Skunkworks has had a rather full employee car park since the early 80's.

Ref. Aurora doing the round the world trips in the 1990's, that was certainly a strong rumor. Lots of sightings of a black triangle with an F111 escort. Some credible, some not.

Unexplained radar traces on the ATC sets, and strong fit men with American accents being around RAF Macrahanish at certain times of the month a few years back is more than a rumor, it's fact. I know someone very well who has a family getaway home on the island across the way (Arran), and the 'quiet americans' were well known about and left alone. I've also drunk a fair few beers over the years with more than one ATC bod who backs up the unexplained radar hits. Officially though, just ghostings. Or imagination. Nothing to see here.

Also fact is the 'Donuts on a rope' weather satellite photo taken which shows the contrail starting out of Groom lake, and ending over Northern Europe.

Like I say, I got 2012 in the sweepstake. ££200 to me if I get it :)

[footnote]Edited by Chainguy on Monday 22 September 20:03[/footnote]

[footnote]Edited by Chainguy on Monday 22 September 20:06[/footnote]

Image
http://www.bbc.co.uk/southerncounties/c ... tory.shtml

coooooooooooooooooooool (maybe)
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by AlexKP @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:03 am

It should be noted that the SR71A is actually 1950's technology. The F117A NightHawk is 1970's Stealth Technology, and the B2 Spirit Stealth Bomber is 1980's Tec.

Given the huge leaps in computer design technology in the past twenty years or so I see no reason to believe that an aircraft such as Aurora is supposed to be is beyond possibility.

Don't forget that the pace of technological advance is accelerating exponentially, not slowing down.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Parrot of Doom @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 2:51 am

So when do I get my holosuite then?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by CJ+ @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 6:29 am

AlexKP wrote:It should be noted that the SR71A is actually 1950's technology. The F117A NightHawk is 1970's Stealth Technology, and the B2 Spirit Stealth Bomber is 1980's Tec.

Given the huge leaps in computer design technology in the past twenty years or so I see no reason to believe that an aircraft such as Aurora is supposed to be is beyond possibility.

Don't forget that the pace of technological advance is accelerating exponentially, not slowing down.

No-one's saying it's beyond possibility - the assertion of people like me is simply that it doesn't exist, and the available evidence would tend to support that.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Kermit @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 6:56 am

deevlash wrote:Image
that was taken over the uk a few years ago, as the blackbird isnt flying anymore what caused it?


Why did they feel the need to highlight a plane which obviously has nothing to do with the trail? :confused:
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:29 am

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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Routie445 @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:32 am

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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Sexy Ted @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:37 am

Why I think Aurora probably existed.

1) My friend in military ATC controlled them. He knew how fast and how high they were. He spoke to the pilots on the radio.
2) All the building work and ultra high security at RAF Macrahanish at the time. Why else do this?
3) The big $6 billion that the USAF spends on "Black " projects every year. There must be something to show for this much money.
4) The corresponding bulge in Lockheed turnover and profits that is not explained by known projects.
5) Just what were skunk works making after F117? A very good question. They are still there with all their resources and capabilities and they are not sitting round playing cards.
6) The vapour trails. No known aircraft could make these. And the very high altitude sonic booms recorded by seismiological equipment.
7) UK ministry of defence openly admits to US "Programme 2 and Programme 3" black project aircraft flying in UK skies.
8) Jane's are the top aviation and defence authority in the world. They think it existed.
9) Chris Gibson (and another person) saw an Aurora flying over the North Sea rig they were on. Chris Gibson had been in the Royal Observer Corps's trophy winning international aircraft recognition team since 1980.
10) The USAF retired SR 71 quite suddenly at a time when they still had a manned strategic reconnaisance requirement. So what did they replace it with?
11) The technology, money, need and will existed to make this plane. There is nothing about the project that is remotely improbable.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Ecks Ridgehead @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:44 am

CommanderJameson wrote:I further contend that there is no credible evidence of any kind to suggest that Aurora has ever been anything more than a fantasy.


This is the crux of it. Ted has posted some highly dubious assertions - from that old internet stalwart, a "mate" - that Enigma, who knows a fair bit about this subject, has picked holes in; he has posted a link to an MoD document that contains no mention of the word "Aurora" or anything like it; and Deevlash has posted a couple of pictures of vapour trails that look a bit funny.

Ask yourself - would it stand up in court?
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:48 am

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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Sexy Ted @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:53 am

12) All the accounts of what Aurora looks like are very consistent. Even though the information has come from diverse sources.

Image

Here are some Aurora trails. Nothing else could have made them:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

There are loads more photos of these donuts on a rope contrails. Far too many for it to be some fluke of nature. Something unusual and secret made them.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Routie445 @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:55 am

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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Ecks Ridgehead @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:56 am

Sexy Ted wrote:8 ) Jane's are the top aviation and defence authority in the world. They think it existed.


No, Jane's published an article by a journalist who speculates that Aurora could also be the codename for a project called Senior Citizen, as an example of how the US DoD may use two different levels of codenaming.

Article: http://www.janes.com/defence/news/jidr/ ... 01_n.shtml

Also, Jane's is far from infallible; their entries for a number of the products made by the company that I work for were inaccurate (until I contacted them to give them the facts). They're just specialised journalists.
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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Tokyo Sexwale @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 9:00 am

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Re: Aurora Spy Plane: X-Files Tosh, or Real Conspiracy?

Post by Kermit @ Fri Jan 09, 2009 9:00 am

Sexy Ted wrote:Here are some Aurora trails. Nothing else could have made them:


Hmm. Not quite nothing....

Image

If you would care to post up a picture of a vapour trail from a perfectly normal aircraft, there are at least a dozen people on here who could return it to you with a bona fide Aurora trail within the hour.
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