Election 2019

Do you have difficulty sustaining your election?

Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:11 pm

I think the assumption that those in favour of Leaving the EU justify their position with easily demonstrably false claims has lead to them being labelled thick. In some cases because they're not blessed with much intelligence, in others because they are wilfully ignorant. So they hide behind tautologies "Brexit means Brexit" or vague claims about Sovereignty. Can you provide a reasoned case for Leaving the EU Dirk? I know you want 'to make the best of it" because you would prefer serial liar Johnson as PM to the other candidate(s). How many lives are you prepared to sacrifice on that altar?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by ttwiggy @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:15 pm

Strawman wrote: I know you want 'to make the best of it" because you would prefer serial liar Johnson as PM to the other candidate(s). How many lives are you prepared to sacrifice on that altar?


I always thought it was just a pathological desire to play Devils Dirkvocate in every situation?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:20 pm

tanglerat wrote:
tanglerat wrote:On topic but possibly not so relevant for you GB voters, but there's a couple of interesting constituency bunfights lining up in Norn Iron.

Belfast North has been a Unionist seat since forever. Iconically so, for some locals. It's now held by Nigel Dodds, DUP. He had a 2000 majority over SF in the last election. But crucially, he had an election pact with the UU where they didn't run a candidate to avoid splitting the Unionist vote. There's a new UU leader now though who reckons the DUP are a disgrace and who won't do any pacts this time around.

Which brings Arlene Fosters seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone into play too.


Over the weekend, the UP has folded and won't be fielding a candidate in North Belfast, to unify the Unionist vote behind the DUP's Nigel Dodds (+2k majority in last GE) fight against SF's John Finucane (son of lawyer John Finucane, murdered by Loyalists colluding with Crown Forces). Stories going around last week of local UP activists being intimidated by Loyalists to get their party to stand aside. So Finucane & SF are calling on anti-Brexit Unionists to vote SF rather than for Dodds, who led the DUP's Brexit love-in with the Tories and got thrown under the Boris Bus. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.


Just to distract us all from dirk-bashing - the (Nationalist) SDLP has unilaterally decided not to run a candidate in North Belfast, for the first time ever.

So it's shaping up nicely for a straightforward bunfight between No Brexit Nationalist/Republican SF Vs Brexit Unionist/Loyalist DUP, with the likelihood of the No Brexit Alliance Party (unionist with a small "u", non-Loyalist) being the joker in the pack.

In 2017 Dodds had a majority of 2081 over Finucane. In that election, the SDLP polled 2058 votes, and the AP 2475.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by tanglerat @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:22 pm

Strawman wrote:I think the assumption that those in favour of Leaving the EU justify their position with easily demonstrably false claims has lead to them being labelled thick. In some cases because they're not blessed with much intelligence, in others because they are wilfully ignorant. So they hide behind tautologies "Brexit means Brexit" or vague claims about Sovereignty. Can you provide a reasoned case for Leaving the EU Dirk? I know you want 'to make the best of it" because you would prefer serial liar Johnson as PM to the other candidate(s). How many lives are you prepared to sacrifice on that altar?


You mean, how many ditches is he prepared to die in?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:43 pm

Dirk wrote:
thekungfury wrote:
Dirk wrote:
Doctor Congo wrote:
Ah the spectator and Toby Young. You win at bullshit bingo for the day.

Ah yes, all evidence that doesn't confirm with your views must be subject to an ad hominem attack. Ignoring the fact that he didn't do the research, just reported on it

Just go with your beliefs without any evidence. Much safer.
Ironically just what you accuse those stupid Leave supporters of doing

Seriously Dirk if you quote Toby Young writing in The Spectator and cherry picking old studies as a valid source of evidence then you’ve lost your argument before it’s begun.

He’s extrapolated UKIP’s 2 seats in 2015 to say their voters are more intelligent than Labour’s. It’s a nonsense piece of “journalism” that deserves derision. Do better.

I totally agree that the research was flawed (though not for the reason you say, it was based on raw data from all constituencies, not just 2). Its also completely irrelevant because we live in a democracy where every vote is equal.

There is clear evidence that the average IQ of voters for Green and LDs are higher. That doesn't mean more intelligent people vote them. The Tories and Labour attract similar or larger proportions of intelligent people, but also far more less intelligent people which brings their averages down.

But the point is that the evidence for leave voters being stupid is equally deficient. Mostly it was based on % who had university education, or other other exam grade based information. However that overlooked the fact the Leave voters were in general older, and so less likely to have had the opportunity for university education. Whereas more recently a higher proportion do. Similar factors apply to exam grade given the exam grade inflation that has occurred. Thus there is little real evidence to suggest that Leave voters are significantly more thick.

Or indeed that anyone that disagrees with Dr Congo on every other issue is. But still the assertions continue

So why not have a rational debate about the merits of approaches rather than just repeat tired prejudices?
Because every time someone repeats that tired, unproven insult, their opinion is hardened, not weakened


Extraordinary
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:56 pm

tanglerat wrote:
Strawman wrote:I think the assumption that those in favour of Leaving the EU justify their position with easily demonstrably false claims has lead to them being labelled thick. In some cases because they're not blessed with much intelligence, in others because they are wilfully ignorant. So they hide behind tautologies "Brexit means Brexit" or vague claims about Sovereignty. Can you provide a reasoned case for Leaving the EU Dirk? I know you want 'to make the best of it" because you would prefer serial liar Johnson as PM to the other candidate(s). How many lives are you prepared to sacrifice on that altar?


You mean, how many ditches is he prepared to die in?


Laugh, I meant the "yellowhammer" government report which put actual estimates on the numbers dying from the drug shortages a hard Brexit will inevitably result in. Gove first said back in September it was an old report, when it was pointed out the date it was published was August 2019, he said then the dctors had got it wrong, because despite having no medical training Gove knows better.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by manfromdelmonte @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:57 pm

I really wish I'd never started that debate. Sorry all.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:03 pm

manfromdelmonte wrote:I really wish I'd never started that debate. Sorry all.


No need to, your opinion is as valid as anyone’s
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:22 pm

Dirk wrote:You can only make such a visual estimate if there is a linear relationship between age and educational qualifications. Which plainly there isn't.

So its just supposition.

It may well be the case but without normalising the data for age you cannot tell from those graphs. Or when you normalise you might find it is statistically insignificant.

But from a sample size of >checks notes< 1 you’re prepared to make the statement “well actually UKIP voters are more intelligent than Labour voters”. Cool, cool.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by CJ+ @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:56 pm

manfromdelmonte wrote:I really wish I'd never started that debate. Sorry all.

Never apologise and never back down.

Right, Dis?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:00 pm

CJ+ wrote:
manfromdelmonte wrote:I really wish I'd never started that debate. Sorry all.

Never apologise and never back down.

Right, Dis?


Lol that might be tattooed on someone’s chest.....
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:08 pm

Just realised I never pointed out that Dr C's repeated assertion was not that Brexit voters were less intelligent on average, but that they were all thick

Which teek's graphs disproves if anything.

Strawms. If you offered me a referendum tomorrow I would vote Remain (again). I just don't see that as a realistic outcome.

Like many business organisations that previously supported remain, I now think we would be better going than more drawn out negotiations- still with risk of a no deal Brexit if we get another hung parliament where they reject ever option again
Last edited by Dirk on Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:10 pm

Dirk wrote:Just realised I never pointed out that Dr C's repeated assertion was not that Brexit voters were less intelligent on average, but that they were all thick

Which teek's graphs disproves if anything.

Strawms. If you offered me a referendum tomorrow I would vote Remain (again). I just don't see that as a realistic outcome.

Like many business organisations that previoisly supported remain, I now think we would be better going than more drawn out changes- still withe risk of a no deal Brexit if we get another hung parliament where they reject ever option again



Yes that’s what I said. Obviously.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:28 pm

Our local MP, Eleanor Laing, is in line for Bercow’s old job. Given that she does pretty much nothing for her local constituency, if she gets Speaker, does that mean we get a new MP?
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Frik @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:30 pm

You wouldn't. But Sit Lindsay Hoyle's beaten her to it.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by S1K @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:31 pm

He’s got a girl’s name, like Hilary Benn.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Clown Ice Skater #4 @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:37 pm

Frik wrote:You wouldn't. But Sit Lindsay Hoyle's beaten her to it.


Ah! I hadn’t seen the news before I posted. So she’ll go back to stuff like opposing gay marriage and enjoying her safe seat. Fab.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:41 pm

Clown Ice Skater #4 wrote: if she gets Speaker, does that mean we get a new MP?


I think the speaker's seat is uncontested in elections, so at least she can lose her MP's job now, there is that.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:48 pm

Dirk wrote:Like many business organisations that previously supported remain,

Most businesses still support remain, the only significant supporters of Leave I've seen are Dyson (now relocated headquarters to Singapore) and Weatherspoons

Dirk wrote: I now think we would be better going than more drawn out negotiations- still with risk of a no deal Brexit if we get another hung parliament where they reject ever option again


The Johnson deal allows a route to No deal in 2020, Labour's election pledge is to hold a referendum. So you are happy voting for a party that is hell bent on the no deal route, so I ask again how many lives do you think is acceptable to lose in order to achieve Brexit?
Last edited by Strawman on Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Bodhi @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:59 pm

Strawman wrote:
The Johnson deal allows a route to No deal in 2020,


Is not the same as:

Strawman wrote:for a party that is hell bent on the no deal route
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Strawman @ Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:10 pm

It's a fair point Bodhi but Johnson's government just supressed the parliamentry report on Russian interferance in the referendum from publication, it should have been released weeks ago, it now won't be published until after the election. They've turned down the chance to keep the transition period for two years, it will now be 14th months, Canada and Japan took 10 years to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU, it is unlikely that Tories have left themselves time to do the same. They might be in coalition with the Brexit party. Lots of signs they could be heading for the door labelled no deal.
This photo

Image
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:28 pm

An Italian living in Wales who names himself after long dead national leaders creating false reports about LD leader and hubbie.

Tut-tut

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-50160148
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Deuteronomy @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:57 am

Strawman wrote:Image


More and more I find myself enraged at Johnson's lack of a neck.

Image
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Re: Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:09 am

I mean sure he's a racist bumbling narcissist hellbent on dragging the country back to the 1950's, but yeah, his noneck.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Frik @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:19 pm

Tories doing an excellent job so far in this election :slowhandclap:

By rights they should lose by miles, but I can't see anyone that's much better. .
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Dirk @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:39 pm

Frik wrote:Tories doing an excellent job so far in this election :slowhandclap:

By rights they should lose by miles, but I can't see anyone that's much better. .

I think that Labour have 3 standing down for embarrassing reasons (Vaz for prozzies, one for anti-semitism and one for sexual harassment)

But I haven't seen any going from LDs for anything like that have they?

So I guess Labour hold the immoral high ground at this point.
Though I suppose with examples like Thorpe and Cyril Smith the Lib Dems tend to go big when they do

You set me thinking that MPs have a far higher rate of being done for crimes than the population at large. But apparently not:
It is a surprising statistic but over 11 million people in the UK have a criminal record. A third of men and nine per cent of women will have been convicted of an offence by the age of 53.


<looks around CTF with narrowed eyes>
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Re: Election 2019

Post by CJ+ @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:15 pm

Chris Williamson has been dropped. Good. He's a shit.
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Election 2019

Post by thekungfury @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:08 pm

Tom Watson has stepped down
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Re: Election 2019

Post by Doctor Congo @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:14 pm

Tom Watson?

Wow Momentum have got their way.
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Re: Election 2019

Post by S1K @ Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:18 pm

I don’t like living in interesting times. Can we go back to the mid nineties when things were just ticking along okay?
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